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17 responses to “What Did the Dormouse Say?”

  1. Froog

    I am in the ranks of the irritated ‘sceptics’ about Ms vos Sant’s analysis of the ‘Monty Hall problem’.

    It is patent poppycock that the door ‘not chosen’ has a higher probability of being the prize door than the door already chosen.

    By eliminating one of the ‘wrong answers’, the host is reducing the odds of any of the other doors being the ‘right answer’, hiding the prize – both the door already picked and its alternative.

    The contestant is being given a chance to chose again, except that it is now a 1-in-2 choice for both doors: the one he chose originally, and the one he didn’t.

  2. Jayne

    To answer Ms. Georgiou’s first question: Yes. Further, you will be left with the rest of your burning questions standing on the burning deck , reciting Love’s a burning question.

    Back to Vonnegut and Rudy–they never do shut up. How do we close up the peephole? Or how do make sure the peephole has the proper lens?

    Sometimes I feel like I’m already living in an alien world. But it still has a rabbit hole (thank goodness) into which I shall now jump…
    (Maybe I need some different pills? )

  3. marta

    Now I am thinking of Burton’s “Alice” which I quite liked even if it was on many worst movie lists.

    And I’m thinking of star whales too.

    So, the Dormouse said to the Star Whale as they headed down the rabbit hole…

  4. marta

    @John – I wish I’d said “as they headed down the rabbit hole in a blue box.”

    Anyway.

    I expected to dislike Burton’s “Alice.” A reviewer I like shredded the film. But. Liked it anyway.

  5. marta
  6. marta

    @John – Oh, I didn’t slim over the details link (but will later!).

    And I’m afraid to say that yes, I did already know that episode. I watched it a few months back. Maybe last year actually–Thank you, Netflix streaming.

    🙂

  7. marta

    Skim. Skim over, I mean.

  8. Jayne

    @John – Oh, I quite like that version!

    I need to learn to sit with a rock, roll it between my hands, take note of its striations and color, before I skip it across the pond. 😉

    (Oh, and I loved Burton’s Alice.)

  9. Froog

    I think the believers are, knowingly or otherwise, wedded to a pair of related fallacies: that the host ‘knows’ where the prize door is, and that his choice thus reveals something about the door ‘not chosen’; and that there is something somehow significant about the pair of doors he considers.

    The host does not know where the prize door is. He merely knows where one of the empty doors is. His revelation of an empty door doesn’t convey any information other than that. If the contestant has initially selected Door A and the host eliminates Door B, he hasn’t revealed anything other than that the prize is behind Door A or Door C.

    The fact that the host is focusing on the pair of doors not selected by the contestant somehow seems more significant, because it is a subset comprising all of the remaining doors in the game. People seem to overlook the fact that there are other possible subsets – i.e., the contestant’s selected door and the door eliminated by the host can also be considered as a pair, from which one of the possible options has been eliminated, thus increasing the odds in favour of the other. When the host eliminates one possible choice from a subset of two (or whatever), he is not only changing the odds for the members of that subset, but for all other possible subsets of that size within the group as a whole. This perhaps becomes more obvious if you consider a larger group of options. If there are 10 doors, and the host focuses on doors 9 and 10, then says, “Look, it isn’t behind Door 10!” – that doesn’t make it twice as likely that it is behind Door 9 as any other door. It just makes it 10% more likely that it is behind any of the doors – including the one the contestant has initially picked.

  10. marta

    @John – My Netflix streaming works like a dream–thank goodness because I watch almost everything I watch that way.

    As for the stuff I carry around in my head… it’s baffled a number of people and probably ruined a great many dates.

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